Gulf prepares to lead global economic recovery

There are signs that the economic shock in the Gulf is coming to an end and the region will start leading the international recovery.

There's never been a worse time to be an economist. Most failed to forecast the scale of the downturn that began in the summer of 2008.

They are cautious about talking too soon about recovery. Some are even making us gloomier. On 21 June, the World Bank announced that it believed that the global economy would contract by almost 3 per cent in real terms in 2009. This compares with its previous forecast, made in March, that the downturn would be 1.7 per cent. If the latest one is accurate, 2009 will indisputably go down as the worst year, in terms of growth, since 1945. And the World Bank says the recovery, which it said could start at the end of the year, will be "much less vigorous than normal" because of the finance industry's limited capacity to lend.

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